Feelin' Lucky? Me Neither.
April 5, 2013 1 Comment
I’ve only had a brief look at the first 4 races and have placed this Lukey15 as I reckon it could be a day for the favorites!
Will have a look at the other races later – if there’s any return on this!
Also, the single on Cue Card Without Sprinter Sacre – it’s a two-way battle for second place between him and Flemenstar, both at 6/4, but the form of Cue Card impresses more.
April 4, 2013 4 Comments
An unpleasant combination of sheer laziness and extreme busy-ness has me simply posting a screenshot of today’s selections.
Going with a bit of a longshot strategy, for not much other reason than attractive ‘potential returns’ rather than backing faves and winning paltry sums!
Low stakes/high odds is the order of the day in these 2 Lukey 15 and Patent bets. Best of luck to you all.. Echo.. echoo.. echooo..oh.
I’d happily take a single place on any of them, realistically
Special mention to Double Ross in the 17.25 @ 25s – if things are going pear-shaped by then I’ll give him a whirl following his epic place at Cheltenham last month, it could well be a trip too far for him though!
March 20, 2013 Leave a comment
Nice little free bet from Victor Chandler today for a long, drawn-out bit of live-chat nagging. The first of likely-much expenditure has been spent as follows:
Longshots are the only way forward for the GN – I hope!
Words; boooo. Screenshots; yaaay.
March 14, 2013 9 Comments
Huzzaaah! That Age of Glory came in at 50/1 in the last race of the day, putting me back in the game, how excellently jammy! I left work at 6 bells just after the delayed Cross Country Chase and only saw the result now, happy days!
Spare a though for JT McNamara who is critical in hospital tonight with a neck injury after a nasty fall today – my thoughts are with him and his family, let’s hope he pulls through just fine.
A four-day binge has commenced so I’m not gonna bother with the chit-chat, here’s the picks on the final day of what’s been a rollercoaster of a ride so far, let’s hope tomorrow’s more full of peaks than troughs for us all!
I haven’t even had a proper read of my little Cheltenham guide, so for the sake of typing something, these are my small punts online for this evening – many more ‘side bets’ will be had in the Boylesports next door to Cassidys in
tandem a few scoops tomorrow..
A fine auld establishment – big screen, great Guinness, free soup and curry. All boxes ticked.
Cheltenham Day Four – Friday, March 15th
13.30 Triumph Hurdle
Swynmor @ 25s
14.05 County Hurdle
Tennis Cap @ 12s
14.40 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle
Hoping for a longshot place on Virgina Ash @ 100s along with my Ante Post punt on Our Vinnie
15.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Silviniaco Conti @ 5s with my AP on Long Run still in play
16.00 Foxhunters’ Chase
Salsify , looked a different class at Leopardstown recently, probably my only fave bet of the day @ 11/4. With PP paying on a fourth place, value to be had further afield also, may go e/w on What a Laugh at 33s
It’s also poignant that I finally get to share a tip with the revered Flopta Joe – it’s bound to smack a fence now!
16.40 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Sorry, got a bit waffley there! Salubrious @ 20s
17.15 Grand Annual Chase
BJ has to bag at least one long-odds winner doesn’t he?! It wouldn’t be Cheltenham without it.. against my better judgement, I’m willing to forgive Day Three’s heartache and give him one last chance on French Opera at 14s.
Here’s the theme song for today:
Christ, that song was wreckin’ my head all day, I really hope someone else can inherit it now!
It’s been emotional.
March 13, 2013 50 Comments
Another decent enough day with places on the last 4 races and a couple of small stakes ‘side bet’ winners throughout the day giving us a nice little war chest to piss down the drain in the pub on Friday. With one of my Ante-Post picks coming in on the first two days – Hurricane Fly yesterday and The New One today – it’s a bit of a bummer that all three APs – Oscars Well, Al Ferof and Big Bucks have me out of pocket before a hoof hits the turf tomorrow.
In case you haven’t got the finger out and started punting online yet, good auld Paddy Power have an excellent offer on all races tomorrow, which can’t be beaten, from what I’ve seen from the competition. If your horse finishes second to the favourite, you’ll get your win stake refunded.. not badge, not badge at all.
I’m not gonna go nuts on ‘St. Patrick’s Thursday’ as I intend to have enough in the kitty to get merrily gee-eyed for Gold Cup Day on Friday! Plenty of interesting races lined up, plus the bonus ‘extra’ one – The Cross Country Handicap chase moved on from Monday – I get the feeling it could be a decent day for the bookies but I’ll be having a wee punt on the following:
Cheltenham Day Three – Thursday, March 14th
And they’re off…
Just for Ross / Henry / A Fheargail
13.30 Jewson Novices Chase
Nerdy stat time – there has been no winner of a Festival novice chase since 1990 aged eight at up to 3m1/2f. As a 2m4f race, we can safely (?) rule out nine y.o. and up ‘s so! Dynaste is a good 12 points clear in the rating over 2nd fave Aupcarlie and could take some beating. I like the form of Captain Conan, however, and will have a wee e/w punt on him at 13/2 – at 6 years of age and with BJ at the helm, all the boxes are ticked for a decent start to the day.
14.05 Pertemps Final H’cap Hurdle
In pretty much stark contrast to the previous trivia titbit (hey, he said tit) horses aged 8+ have won 6 of the last 7 renewals.. frantically searches for a grandaddy horse.. Ah, Stonemaster is 10, wait Junior is 11.. but alas, they’re both pretty shit.
It’s also interesting to note that JP has had three winners here and seems to have made it his own in recent times. With Ruby riding Sam Winner and Tony Mc on Shutthefrontdoor (it’s bleedin’ freeezin’!) it’s a tough call, but there’s always a ‘BJ Geraghty day’ at every major festival and I’m backing this to be the day – Top of the Range at 14s gets my vote.
14.40 Ryanair Chase
First Lieutenant is a beast. I don’t really want to back against him as I’ve done well outta him in the past, but I’m really feelin’ the BJ vibes again here, in fact that’s gonna be the theme for a Lukey15 or two I reckon – last years winner Riverside Theatre looks a decent bet at 6/1.
Only one winner has ever started this race at a higher price than 6/1, so I’m just within the threshold if history is to prove decisive again in this one.
15.20 World Hurdle
The last 12 winners started in the first four in the betting. That’s ominous!
If I’m doing a mad multiple, I will of course stay true to my theme and include BJ and Oscar Whisky as I may live to regret it otherwise.
Was a bit worried doing an image search for ‘BJ’
The bookies usually have this priced up to a tee but I’m gonna go out on a limb, given the ground and throw a little punt on the 5th favourite, Bog Warrior at 9s – he lives up to his name on soft ground and should be able to claim a scalp or two in this mouthwatering lineup.
16.00 Byrne Group Plate
I’ve just realised I’m getting a bit carried away with this shit, it’s late, I’m tired and no one’s even reading!
With just a single Irish-trained winner in this since 1951, it’s safe to say the tri-colours will be back at the bar come the end of this one. Pipe’s Ballynagour looks strong at 4/1 favourite, but with such a large field to choose from, it’d be mad to go for such a low price. Eh… let’s go with Paul Nicholls’ Domtaline at 22s, not quite the horse he was under Ruby, but feck it, it’s Cheltenham and Cheltenham likes upsets!
16.40 Kim Muir Handicap Chase
As the most annoyingly-named race of the festival descends upon us – it always conjures up images of a buck-tooth, ginger, Scotswoman named Kim Muir, for some strange reason – I’ll already be licking my wounds from a misguided BJ fantasy (behave!) and trying to count coppers for the Gold Cup, so without any real research, reflection or confidence, I’m doing what we always do at the last race at Leopardstown if everything is going to shit, back whatever Katie Walsh is riding! She’s on No Secrets at 12/1 – go on Katie!
17.15 Cross Country Chase
Enda Bolger’s Arabella Boy currently tops the betting at 4s and looks hard to oppose. I had originally gone for Balthazar King on Monday but he’s out so that’s that predicament resolved!
As per Monday, I wouldn’t be quick to write-off the field in this one, however, with 2011 champ Sizing Australia (now 11/1) and Freneys Well at 33s representing decent each-way value in my view. It’s unlikely a longshot will win this one, given that fourteen of the last sixteen winners have been within the bookies’ top three so I’m gonna stick with Arabella Boy for the win, with an e/w punt on Freneys Well.
17.45 St. Patrick’s Day Derby
It’s late, this race is on late tomorrow. It’s shit. I’ll put a needle in the paper make a shrewd selection tomorrow!
** Thursday Edit** Age of Glory at 33s and Silverlord at 12s – sure why the feck not?!
Right, I’m off to go and place these now to allow these prices to drift dramatically after all the bookies’ traders have eagerly awaited my selections..
March 12, 2013 39 Comments
Cheltenham Day Two – Wednesday, March 13th
Gotta keep this one short n’ sweet as my kiddo has the chicken pox and I couldn’t be arsed typing and being whinged at simultaneously!
Heart-breaking little zits all over!
Hurricane Fly and Quevega pulled Day One out of the fire for me, so I’m back playin’ with the bookies’ cash tomorrow. Gotta say, I’m loving Bet365’s best priced bookie guarantee, it’s hard to beat that – quite literally!
Here’s Day Two’s selections, sticking largely with the front-runners in the betting, it looks that kind of year..
13.30 National Hunt Chase – Buddy Bolero @ 9/2
14.05 Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle – Pont Alexandre (boring!) @ 6/4
14.40 RSA Chase – Unioniste @ 10/3
15.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase – I’m hoping Spinter sacre whacks a fence and Sizing Europe reels in the years @ 6/1
16.00 Coral Cup – Master of the Sea @ 12/1
16.40 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle – Ptit Zig @ 10/1
17.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper – Golantilla and/or Union Dues – both 8/1
Best of luck to all! I’ll chat to you tomorrow after a third sleepless night.
March 12, 2013 Leave a comment
An alternative view on the day!
March 8, 2013 55 Comments
With all the bookies now No Runner No Bet (you’ll get your money back if your horse doesn’t run), mainstream punters are arming themselves to the teeth with all the latest facts, stats, tips and information they can get their hands on in a desperate bid to make this be their year – their best yet, or simply the one where they don’t lose their bollocks (again!). Either way, fun will be had, and that’s the main thing, as brothers, mothers, squirrels and pissheads converge across the nation to shout at screens and crumple up pieces of paper in rage for a wonderful four-days of feckin’ bliss!
I posted a piece back in November with my Ante-Post Cheltenham betting picks, which went largely unnoticed, so I’m hoping there’s a bit better banter this time ‘round now that we’re all foaming at the mouth for the off on Tuesday. It’s interesting to note how many of the horses backed then are not listed in the declarations (money already down the swanny!) but the ones that are running all have their odds slashed since then so I’m hoping the early bird caught at least one feckin’ worm, preferably six!
Not just any auld worm!
I had originally planned to do an all-in-one ‘Mega-post’ thingy but quickly realised that that would take the guts of an entire day to churn out, which I simply can’t manage during the busiest week of the year, so I’ll just do these on a day-by-day basis, hopefully not getting too lazy to continue as the week progresses.
Good luck to ye all, have a blast and hopefully clean up – be sure to take these tips with a healthy pinch of salt, dose of scepticism and generally disbelief, much of the feedback from last year indicated that my tipping was a valuable source of enabling punters to scratch horses off their list, so I’m just happy to be of service in any way possible!
Cheltenham Day One – Tuesday, March 12th
Let the games begin..
13.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
The much-anticipated opener to each year’s festival, all eyes are on form here as only two of the last sixteen winners of this race have failed to win their previous outing before the event – seems a solid weeding strategy for trying to bag a winner from the off, although as I mentioned in the intro, many have come to use Lukey15 tipping as a weeding strategy in itself in recent times so I wouldn’t read too much into the stats! Another notable stat is the seven of the last eight winners were outside the top three favourites in the betting. Food for thought.
With My Tent Or Yours the heavy fave at time of writing at around 7/4 with most bookies, I’m keen to look farther afield in search of value. Jezki at 5’s and Champagne fever at 12’s stand out as serious contenders but I like the look of Willie Mullins’ nags Pique Sous and Mozoltov both currently trading at 16/1. There’s not much between them so a fiver each way on either (or both!) of them to open up the betting should get us off to a nice clean start – with my Ante-Post pick Rock Critic drifting out to 20s since that post I need to cover my arse a bit!
14.05 Arkle Chase
The ‘killer stat’ stat for this race is that eight of the last nine winners had finished in the first four in a novice hurdle in the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival. Not surprisingly, the two red-hot faves Simonsig (4/6) and Overturn (5/2) fit the bill and have a pretty strong edge over the rest of the field which include Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan at 9s His Excellency at 33/1.
Henderson has trained four winners of this race, and it’s hard to lay Simonsig on his current form, but having watch Overturn come back from the dead at Naas a fortnight ago, I’m happy to wager on his stamina causing a minor upset to the here and get the Irish off the mark with a win.
14.40 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
Has been a bit of a ‘meh’ in terms of build-up excitement in recent times but is usually where the JP McManus bandwagon hits full swing along with some tri-colour flying from steadily-getting-tipsy Irish racing fans in the background of the winner’s enclosure TV footage.
The hideous Leprechauns descend upon the Tattersalls
Competition looks tight this year and I’m actually quite looking forward to the race, which includes Our Mick as 6/1 favourite and The Package at 14s. I’m gonna go with last year’s winner Alfie Sherrin to edge ahead of a tight field and perk up the Irish booze brigade for what may well be a year to remember for us, or forget, if you’ve successfully sneaked your naggins of whisky in with you!
15.20 Champion Hurdle
As the centrepiece of Day One hits centre stage, most of us have already built up a sense of impending doom / joyous optimism (delete as appropriate) as to how their day, and ultimately, week is unfolding on the back of their early-stage failures or success. Always a belter of a race, this one promises not to disappoint (like last year!) with Hurricane Fly polarising opinion like that horrible Bovril alternative.. notable mentions go to pretty much the entire field, with some fine names including Zarkander (4/1), Grandouet (6/1), Cinders and Ashes (10/1) Binocular (10/1) and good auld Khyber Kim further afield at 40s.
I’m sticking with Ruby on the hurricane for this one, but if I had to shop around I’d probably go for Rock on Ruby, but without any real conviction. Paddy Power have a pretty savage offer on the race, saving their annual opening day special for the fourth race of the day as opposed to their usual first race special. It’s certainly worth the wait however, with Money Back on all losers if Hurricane Fly does the business, click below for details.
What I’d do is lump on Hurricane Fly and then put a few smaller bets on a couple of others, notably Rock on Ruby and Grandouet for a pretty-much nailed on guarantee of returns – if he wins, you’ve trebled you money (less what you’ve put on the others, obviously), and if he loses, there’s a pretty good chance your other selection comes in – let’s just hope some back marker doesn’t romp home after a he collision or something similarly catastrophic!. Choose wisely obviously, and ‘do the math’ as the yanks say, as it’s an offer not to be sniffed at!
16.00 Cross Country Chase
Two horses currently share the top of the betting as joint-favourites; Balthazar King and Enda Bolger’s Arabella Boy, both at 5s. If I had to choose between them, I’d go for Balthazar King if Richard Johnson’s at the helm, as the two have developed a fine partnership in the past twelve months since winning this race in 2012.
I wouldn’t be quick to write-off the field in this one, however, with 2011 champ Sizing Australia (12/1) and Freneys Well at 33s representing decent each-way value in my view. It’s unlikely a longshot will win this one, given that fourteen of the last sixteen winners have been within the bookies’ top three so I’m gonna stick with the King for the win, with an e/w punt on Freneys Well.
16.40 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle
One Word – Quevega!
(It’d be pretty terrible blogging if I left it at that, so I suppose I’ll add some filler..)
Delighted to have him at Evens, as he may well represent my only hope of salvation if all the above bets turn to shite! Currently at 8/15, I’d imagine this’ll be even shorter on the day.
Should something terrible happen this legendary monster of a horse, Une Artiste and Tarla would be my natural selections, based on form. I’m sorry though, I just haven’t bothered studying this field given my sheer sense of hubris on the back of this killer Ruby/Mullins/Quevega combo! Tricolours at the ready!
Flag.. hmmm….
17.15 PLI Novices Handicap Chase
As tough a race to call as I can imagine over the entire week, it could realistically go to around twenty of this huge field, so take your pick! I’m opting for a familiar favourite Carlito Brigante at 7s in the hope that Ruby’s on him. Six of the last winners here have won no more than once over the fences, which simply serves to compound the predicament punters find themselves in over this one, seven-year-old also have the advantage, according to the history books. Read into that as you will, I’m going with a paltry each-way punt on White Star Line at 14s on the back of these revelations.
Looking forward to hearing your own tips, views and opinions on all-things-Cheltenham over the coming days, feel free to drop me a comment in praise, awe, rage or discontent over any of the things written above as you deem necessary.
Let’s bag a few winners!
March 5, 2013 Leave a comment
Lukey15 takes a trip down memory lane to 1998 now as a packed Estadio Alberto J. Armando awaits the official unveiling of their new manager – the revered Carlos Bianchi, who would go on to emulate the stunning club record set by Juan Carlos Lorenzo in the 70′s.
What can only be described as hilarity soon ensues..
He looks rather pleased to be there, one would assume, but in the wise words of the man himself:
I defy anyone to produce any evidence that the word ‘happy’ has ever crossed my lips. I am not now, nor have I ever been, ‘happy’.
- Mr. Lawrence G. David
March 1, 2013 Leave a comment
If you’re into funny food challenges, this is an excellent little post from Moolta, love it!
Moolta's Top 5 Food Challenges.
I’d personally like to see the inclusion some of the epic cinnamon or Ghost Chili Challenge vids like the this one:
It’s mind-boggling how many people reckon they’re actually able to do the impossible and munch down a notoriously-mad-bastard chili, or a spoonful of cinnamon without making a show of themselves!
